With fall comes a cool breeze, pumpkin deliciousness and of course football. This season, we get a mid week game all 17 weeks, except for week 1 where we get the opener on Wednesday night game. Here are my week 1 pics against the spread. I used the Las Vegas Hilton's current lines. If you choose to use this for your gambling needs, i am not responsible if you lose. I better get a cut if you win though.
Dallas Cowboys @(-3.5) New York Giants- The Cowboys start the year with a lot of offensive line problems. The Giants are the last team you want to play, what with their plethora of great defensive linemen. Tony Romo will likely be without his favorite target Jason Witten and his second favorite target, Miles Austin, is banged up. Add that to the fact that the defending champs always seem to win these season openers, i think they Giants are a very safe bet. Giants minus 3.5
Indianapolis Colts @(-9.5) Chicago Bears- Andrew Luck is getting thrown into the NFL deep end and i do not think the results are going to be pretty. Lovie Smith has made his money destroying young, inexperienced quarterbacks, and Julius Peppers is salivating at the chance to welcome Luck to the league. Look for the Bears to show off their new offensive toys early, and then ice the game with their revamped running back core. Bears minus 9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ (-3.5) Minnesota Vikings- I think the Jaguars have a chance to be comically bad this year. The rebirth of Blane Gabbert this past preseason has been much exaggerated and i don't see MJD being much of a factor in week 1 after just reporting to camp a day ago. I still think the Vikings would be better off with Joe Webb as their quarterback, but they should have enough in the tank to beat a team like the Jaguars at home. Vikings minus 3.5
Buffalo Bills @ (-3) New York Jets- While the Jets still have a decent defense, they have a chance at being one of the two or 3 worst offensive teams in the league. The Bills on the other hand, had one of the hottest offenses in the league last year until Fred Jackson was put on the IR and Ryan Fitzpatrick was forced to play through injury. The Jets do not have the firepower to exploit a Bills defense that has only gotten better with the addition of star DE Mario Williams. Bills plus 3
Miami Dolphins @(-12.5) Houston Texans- An argument could be made that the Texans could have been Super Bowl champs last year had they not been down to their third string QB. The Texans will look to get a lot of pressure on Dolphins rookie quarterback and first-round pick Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill will be running for his life whenever he drops back to pass. With so few weapons at the skill positions, he still won't find someone to throw to most of the time. Texans minus 12.5
New England Patriots @ (+5) Tennessee Titans- Could the 2012 version of the Patriots offense be even more explosive than their 2007 counterparts? I happen to think the answer is yes. With 2 solid young running backs, as good of a receiver tandem as any in the league and the best tight end duo ever, look for the Patriots to score early and often. For what its worth, i think the titans should have stayed with Matt Hasselbeck if they wanted any chance at being competitive. Patriots minus 5
St. Louis Rams @ (-7)Detroit Lions- On paper you would think this would be a no brainier. The Lions were one of the most explosive teams last year while the Rams struggled to put any points on the board. However, i think the addition of Jeff Fisher as a coach has really gone under the radar for the Rams. Fisher can do amazing things with a running game and he hasn't had a running back as consistent as Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford has a horrible combination of injuries and a Sophomore slump last season. Look for him to bounce back. I like the Lions to win but i think the Rams keep it close. Rams plus 7
Washington Redskins @ (-7)New Orleans Saints- As a rule, i try to stay away from "bad karma" bets. Teams that seem to have bad karma on their side can rarely over come it. This past weekend i went against that rule and backed Penn State. We all know how that turned out. That being said, I think in this first game, the Saints come out with a "Win one for the coach!" mentality. They are very tough at home and i think RG3 might be a little overwhelmed in his first NFL game. Saints minus 7
Philadelphia Eagles @ (+8.5) Cleveland Browns- If Mike Vick stays healthy, the Eagles have a shot in every game. Seems like you can just say that every week. However, i am fairly certain the Eagles could start me at quarterback and still beat the Browns. Brandon Wheeden instantly becomes the worst starting QB in the league. Seriously, who drafts a 28 year old rookie QB in round 1? It boggles my mind. Look for the Browns to lose big here en route to 0-16. Eagles Minus 8.5
Atlanta Falcons @ (+2.5)Kansas City Chiefs- The Falcons have trouble playing tough road games. That has been proven over the last couple weeks. Arrowhead is a tough place to play. I really like the Chiefs this season. With Jamal Charles back in the mix and Peyton Hillis to re leave some of his workload. the Chiefs should be able to run opponents in to the ground. The Falcons are a trendy pick this season but i just don't see how they have improved much over last season, while a lot of other NFC teams have improved. This is my upset special of the week. Chiefs plus 2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ (-5)Green Bay Packers- Who will win when the best offense squares of against the best defense? In this day and age thee safe bet is on offense. The Niners offense is a little better than last year with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, but if this game goes to a shoot out which i believe it will, i just don't see anyway that San Fran hangs with the Packers. Packers minus 5
Seattle Seahawks @ (+2.5)Arizona Cardinals- I don't understand why this line is so low. It could be 10 points and i would still take the Seahawks. The Cardinals have an awful offensive line to go with some of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Larry Fitzgerald can only do so much if no one can get him the ball. While i don't fully support the decision to start Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn, i do think the Seahawks have enough weapons to compete for the division. They for sure have enough weapons to destroy the Cards. Seahawks minus 2.5
Carolina Panthers @ (+2.5)Tampa Bay Bucs- The Panthers were better than their record last year. Cam Newton took the league by storm and despite a less than stellar second half, should be ready to build upon that this season. The Bucs are a trendy sleeper pick this year but i just don't see it. I don't think Josh Freeman can carry an NFL team. The only real thing the Bucs did to improve was hire a new head coach and i don't think that's enough to beat a young and hungry Carolina team. Panthers minus 2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ (-1.5)Denver Broncos- The Steelers are really banged up on both sides of the ball. That's before you take in to account that their safety can not play in the mile high altitude. All eyes will be on Peyton Manning, who will be taking his first meaningful snaps in a year and a half. With all the defensive injuries for the Steelers, coupled with the fact that Manning always delivers in these Sunday night games, i like the Broncos for the early season upset. Broncos minus 1.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ (-7) Baltimore Ravens- There is a lot of Joe Flacco buzz coming out of the preseason. I don't buy it. If Flacco was going to break out, he would have done it already. The Ravens lost so much with the injury to Terrell Suggs. This once majestic defensive unit all of a sudden looks a little old and a little thin. I am not the biggest Bengals supporter either, but 7 points is a lot in a divisional match up to start the season. I say take the points. Bengals plus 7
San Diego Chargers @ (-1)Oakland Raiders- I understand the Chargers weren't that great last year, but how is Oakland favored in this game? I expect this division to be a two horse race between thee Chargers and the Chiefs. Every year i hear about the rebirth of the Raiders, and every year i don't believe it. This year is no different. Chargers plus 1
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